Burns said the greater sales increase by new homes is shaking out as different from the 2001-2005 boom when sales increases from both new and resale homes moved more in tandem.
That's because the new home market was hit harder than the resale market, which suffers all the foreclosures.
- The economy stunted new home growth as debt and equity capital for new home construction became more difficult to obtain than a new mortgage, according to Burns.
- Also, many homebuilders closed up shop as the bottom line hit rock bottom turning many companies unprofitable.
- New home building land, typically in outlying areas, also got hit harder during the downturn, Burns reports.
Coming to the rescue are more publicly traded homebuilders who have greater access to capital than the private sector.
"Publicly traded builders have raised low-cost, unsecured, non-recourse debt that matures many years from now, while most private builders can only borrow from banks on a secured, recourse, short-term basis," according to the report.
Burns says increased market share for new homebuilders is likely for 2013 due to several pressing factors.
New home growth expected
Age - The median age of the nation's housing stock is 39 years with the majority of the homes more than 10 years old.
Negative equity - 10.7 million homeowners who purchased homes during boom times are still underwater on their mortgages and cannot sell.
Home prices need to continue to appreciate in order to bring those homeowners above water enough to entice them to list their homes to at least break even.
Even then, given the fear of the last recession, many homeowners will hold onto to what they've got for some time to come.
Short supply - Major housing markets have less than three months of supply of homes for sale. That includes Austin, Denver, Los Angeles, Orange County, Orlando, Phoenix, San Diego, and Seattle.
Other metros, including, Sacramento, San Jose, and Oakland, have less than one month of supply. A seven-month supply is the historical average, says Burns.
Certainly then, if new homebuilders build them, buyers will come - if today's demand is any indication.